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Match PredictionMatch Centre

Explore This Page

Last Updated: 24th July 2024
Author
Author
Richard Clarke
Match Prediction Expert
Richard Clarke is a prominent cricket columnist at The Cricket Paper, accomplished author, and respected sports media influencer. Delve into his expertise for unparalleled county cricket insights and compelling sports narratives.

ICC Mens T20 World Cup 2024

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Toss is one of the oldest traditions in cricket and so is the toss prediction market when it comes to cricket betting.

It is one of those aspects of cricket that has not changed for about 145 years of international cricket since the very first Test match in 1877.

Though the toss prediction is purely a matter of chance, it can greatly affect the outcome of a cricket match and thus toss prediction appeals to cricket fans and bettors alike.

Today Toss Prediction

The only information relevant to today toss prediction is historical data about tosses and a captain’s decision after winning the toss. Although predicting the toss outcome is a futile activity in most cases, we use the historical toss decision data in our predictions for today’s cricket match.

The advent of T20 cricket initiated a wave of private leagues across the globe – such as the Indian Premier League, Big Bash League, and Pakistan Super League to name a few. A T20 match is always about to start somewhere in the world and thus cricket fans are often in search of today toss prediction.

toss-prediction-coin-toss-2048x1141.jpg
IPL Coin Toss

How does the toss affect the match odds?

The importance of toss varies according to the format, length and venue of a cricket match. In Test matches, where the conditions are tailored to the needs of the home team, the toss can dictate the match result, especially when the home team wins it.

For our users who indulge in betting on the match result market, a more important question than toss prediction is how does the toss affect the match odds?

The toss also has a big influence in the shorter match format such as T20 - Cricket Betting


On an overcast day, on a green surface, winning the toss and bowling first shifts the odds in favour of the bowling team. In a match among the equals, the toss has a major effect on the outcome of the match.

How does the toss affect our match predictions?

Cricket betting analysts include all the parameters that affect the result of the match in our cricket match prediction and cricket betting tips. One of the questions we try to answer is – how does the toss affect our match predictions?

The coin may favour any team on any given day, but if it favours a team in the right match conditions – home/away, spinning/seaming surface, presence of dew etc – the toss can be a decisive factor.

Pray India won’t win the toss – if they do, India win 80% of matches - Cricket Betting


To put things in perspective, let’s take the example of India in Tests. They have built a fortress at home. In the last 10 years, India’s winning percentage after winning the toss at home is close to 80% – 24 matches, 19 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws.

You can expect cricket betting predicting an India win if they win the toss at home in a Test match.  That is how strongly the toss can affect today match prediction.

Best Toss Prediction

A coin toss is purely a random event. The concept of best toss prediction exists only in theory. Every time the coin goes up, both teams have a 50% chance of winning the toss.

Many analysts claim to provide the best toss prediction but the reality is no one can predict the toss outcome. It is not something that can be derived, like match results, from the historical data or team form.  Don’t let anyone fool you into believing that toss outcome can be predicted.

The best thing about the toss is that is it purely unbiased. Often, in order to provide the best toss prediction, many consider the event of toss under the law of averages erroneously. What people consider the law of averages is basically, the law of large numbers.

Let me explain. It is possible for, say team A to win 80% to 90% tosses within the first 10 to 15 events against Team B. However, when the number of tosses between two teams inches towards a large number such as 100, the win probability starts to move towards 50% for both teams.

Now, a team can be on a roll against a particular in the short term, but we need to understand that it is just a snapshot in a longer time frame and that it would even out longitudinally.

The fun part is, it impossible to know when would it start moving towards the mean. That’s why best toss predictions are hard to deduce.

To understand this better, let’s take a look at the toss data of the two teams who have played the most Test matches between them – England and Australia.

Total TossesAustralia Toss WinsAustralia Toss Win%England Toss WinsEngland Toss Win%
35617950.2%17749.7%

2023 Coin Toss Analysis

   Matches  Won  Drawn  Lost  Win %
Home Side Won Toss     
Elected to Bat632150.00
Elected to Bowl2200100.00
Overall Total852162.50
Home Side Lost Toss     
Fielded First824225.00
Bat First430175.00
Overall Total1254341.67
Away Side Won Toss     
Elected to Bat824225.00
Elected to Bowl410325.00
Overall Total1234525.00
Away Side Lost Toss     
Fielded First612316.67
Bat First20020.00
Overall Total812512.50

Which betting sites offer the best toss odds?

The betting companies often place the “to win the toss” market around the 1.80 mark. Some of the best toss prediction betting odds are provided by Betway, 888Sport, 10Bet, Comeon, Parimatch etc. who constantly provide the toss betting odds around the 1.9 mark.

  • 888sport: Toss Odds – 1.91
  • Betway: Toss Odds – 1.91
  • 10bet: Toss Odds – 1.9
  • Comeon: Toss Odds – 1.9
  • Parimatch: Toss Odds – 1.9

IPL Toss Prediction

Cricket Betting provides a well-researched preview of the IPL match along with today IPL toss prediction.

The flip of a coin really should be a random event. However, it does seem that some Captains just know how to win the match toss. Our estimate about today IPL match toss prediction is an educated estimate. 

Gujarat Titans have been lucky enough to win about 58% of the tosses in 33 matches so far in two seasons. This high toss win percentage has surely contributed to their tremendous success in both the 2022 and 2023 IPL. GT reached the finals on both occasions and managed to clinch the trophy once in 2022.

It should not be surprising to see the high toss win percentage for MI and CSK. These are two of the most successful franchises in IPL, winning 10 trophies (5 each) in the 16 seasons so far. This underlines the impact of toss in IPL and the shortest format of the game in general.

To get a better idea of who might today IPL toss prediction favour in the next IPL match, Cricket Betting has crunched the numbers since IPL 2008 of India Premer League.

Our analysis and commentary on today IPL match toss prediction would be based on the following data. Coin toss being such a random event, the readers are advised to consider our analysis with a pinch of salt.

Toss win % of teams since from 2008 to 2023

Team Name

Total Matches

Won Toss

Lost Toss

Toss Win %

GT

33

19

14

57.58

MI

247

133

114

53.85

RR

206

109

97

52.91

CSK

225

119

106

52.89

DC

238

123

115

51.68

KKR

237

119

118

50.21

SRH

166

81

85

48.80

RCB

241

114

127

47.30

PBKS

232

99

133

42.67

LSG

30

10

20

33.33

Coin Toss – Is there any advantage?

Although coin toss is a completely random event, the team winning the toss has better control over the rest of the match.  

Winning the toss gives a 5% advantage in Tests - Cricket Betting


That is probably why our users often ask – “coin toss – is there any advantage?” Let’s try to tackle this question with Test match data in the 21st century for 8 major Test nations.

1.Overall, the team winning the toss has won 37% of the matches as opposed to 31% wins after losing the toss. A clear 5% advantage after winning the toss.

2. Sri Lanka have been reliant on toss wins to win the Tests in the 21st century. Their win percentage of 46% after winning the toss which comes down by 15% when they lose the toss.

3. Australia, India and South Africa have won at least 50% of the matches when they won the toss – which is quite substantial given that more than 20% of Test matches end up in a draw.

4. Australia, Pakistan and South Africa have had about a 9% advantage after winning the toss while India had an 8% toss advantage.

5. Interestingly, England and West Indies have not been able to capitalize on the toss advantage. Their win % is exactly the same irrespective of the toss result.

6. The majority of the teams have a similar draw percentage irrespective of the toss result. Except for India and New Zealand, the remaining teams have drawn more matches when they lost the toss.

Toss Advantage in Tests all time 2536.

Team% Lost Toss & Won MatchLost Toss & Loss MatchLost Toss & Draw MatchWon Toss & Won MatchWon Toss & Loss MatchWon Toss & Draw MatchToss Advantage
Afghanistan25%75%0%40%60%0%15%
Australia45%28%27%51%25%24%6%
Bangladesh9%77%14%18%69%11%9%
England35%33%32%38%28%35%2%
India29%34%36%32%27%41%3%
Ireland25%75%0%0%100%0%-25%
New Zealand23%40%37%26%39%35%3%
Pakistan32%34%34%33%28%39%0%
South Africa33%37%30%45%32%24%12%
Sri Lanka27%45%27%37%33%31%10%
West Indies29%38%33%34%35%30%5%
Zimbabwe12%65%24%11%64%26%-1%
TOTAL32%37%31%37%32%31%5%

The data shows that there is a clear advantage to winning the toss. A general trend is that the teams winning the toss tend to win more matches while the ones losing the toss tend to lose or draw more.

What does a test captain do when winning the coin toss?

So, you must be wondering – what does a test captain do when winning the coin toss? This question reminds me of an old saying in Test cricket which goes something like this – If you win the toss in Test cricket, look at the opposition, assess the conditions, and then decide to bat first anyway.

India and Australia generally bat first after winning the toss - Cricket Betting


The toss data from the 21st century highlights the fact that toss winning captain in Tests prefers batting first. After all, who would want to bat last on a crumbling pitch?

What does a test captain do when winning the coin toss? (since 2001)

Team

Total Tosses Won

Bat First

Bat First %

Bowl First

Bowl first%

Australia

114

97

85%

17

15%

England

134

97

72%

37

28%

India

104

83

80%

21

20%

Sri Lanka

106

71

67%

35

33%

South Africa

94

68

72%

26

28%

Pakistan

80

50

63%

30

38%

West Indies

100

50

50%

50

50%

New Zealand

82

39

48%

43

52%

Here are some nuggets from this data

  • India and Australia would almost always bat first after winning the toss. Sri Lanka and England also bat first about 70% of the time.
  • In 100 Tests in the 21st century, West Indies have batted and bowled first 50% of the time.
  • New Zealand is the only country to have bowled first after winning the toss more often in the 21st century. This highlights the fact that they play at home more often where there’s enough help for the new ball bowlers.

What does an IPL captain do when winning the coin toss?

Interestingly, if you ask the same question for IPL prediction such as the one we asked for Test matches earlier i.e. – what does an IPL captain do when winning the coin toss? – the answer might surprise you.

IPl-toss-prediction.jpg
KKR Captain Eoin Morgan at the coin toss
In IPL, Win the toss and bowl! - Cricket Betting

Here’s what we found:

  1. In the IPL, the captains tend to bowl first after winning the coin toss.
  2. Win the toss win the match is a false assumption - it events out in the long run.
  3. GT, CSK and MI have taken an advantage of their luck at the toss and have gone on to capitalize the most.
  4. GT wins 68.42% of the matches where they win the toss, which is higher than any other current franchise.

Team Name

Total Matches

Won Toss

Bat First When Toss Won

Bat First % When Toss Won

Bowl First When Toss Won

Bowl First % When Toss Won

Won Toss and Won Match %

GT

33

19

6

31.58

13

68.42

68.42

CSK

225

119

59

49.58

60

50.42

62.18

MI

247

133

52

39.10

81

60.90

57.14

KKR

237

119

37

31.09

82

68.91

54.62

LSG

30

10

2

20.00

8

80.00

50.00

RCB

241

114

33

28.95

81

71.05

50.00

RR

206

109

41

37.61

68

62.39

48.62

DC

238

123

39

31.71

84

68.29

47.97

SRH

166

81

31

38.27

50

61.73

44.44

PBKS

232

99

30

30.30

69

69.70

41.41

 

What do the statistics say about the coin toss in the IPL?

As we have seen earlier, the captain’s decision to bowl first after winning the toss is sort of becoming a trend in IPL. Does this apply to match results as well? What do statistics say about the coin toss in the IPL? Let’s take a brief look:

1. Contrary to popular belief, a coin toss win doesn’t affect the match result in the same way for all the teams.

2. GT has won the highest (68.42% wins) after winning the toss while CSK has highest toss advantage.

3. RR, GT, SRH, PBKS, LSG - All these teams have won more matches when they lost the toss.

Team Name

Total Matches

Toss Wins

Match Wins When Toss Won %

Match Wins When Toss Lost %

Toss Advantage (%)

CSK

225

119

62.18

53.77

8.41

KKR

237

119

54.62

46.61

8.01

DC

238

123

47.97

42.61

5.36

RCB

241

114

50

46.46

3.54

MI

247

133

57.14

56.14

1

RR

206

109

48.62

51.55

-2.93

GT

33

19

68.42

71.43

-3.01

SRH

166

81

44.44

50.59

-6.15

PBKS

232

99

41.41

49.62

-8.21

LSG

30

10

50

60

-10

Today Match Toss Prediction Astrology

Many people believe in astrology and seek advice while deciding on today match toss prediction. It must be emphasized that Astrology is regarded as pseudoscience. It has been falsified time and again and has no scientific validity.

The alignment of stars and planets, which is the basis for Astrology, has nothing to do with a captain winning the toss on a given day. We cannot advise our users to seek advice from astrology for today match toss prediction.

We recommend that our users accept the randomness of a coin toss and not let anyone, astrology or otherwise, fool them into believing that the outcome of the toss can be predicted with certainty.

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