The Hattrick - IPL 2024 - Outright Top Batter and Bowler Predictions

Welcome back to The Hat Trick, the live cricket betting show brought to you by cricket-betting.com. I'm your host, Ed Hawkins. It's IPL time, the most important betting event of the year, and this is the first of two preview shows on the IPL. Our second show will reveal the outright winner. We'll look at the outright market, but this time, we're looking at top run-scorer and top wicket-taker, two great markets to play. 

We've got a hat-trick of Cricket Tips again this week, with Manish finding the best stats angles, John Wright, the former odds compiler, to tell us how the odds are put together with all the angles, and a warm welcome to Richard, finding the best special bets. Our bookmaker this week is 1XBet. Check out cricket-betting.com for all your IPL match predictions throughout the tournament. We're going to get this done.

Today's top tournament run-scorer for the IPL: Jaiswal at 9, Kohli at 10, Gill, who won last year and Gaikwad at the same price, Warner at 11, Rahul at 12 and Butler at 13, Rohit at the same price. Those are some select prices. John, coming to you first, potential big number players to look at in this market, but how do you price it out? What are you looking for?

"I'm always looking for an opener. If you look at the previous winners of this market and definitely the ones that finished in the top five or six, they're usually openers, usually face the most amount of balls. Also, pedigree in this tournament, people that have played in India before, maybe played for other franchises. But I think you're looking for a solid opener that knows how to play the power play, can score at over a hundred strike rate, wherever. 

So, um, yeah, if you look at the previous winners, a lot of them are at the top of the order. And Kohli, when he broke the record in 2016 with 973 runs, he opened the batting with Chris Gayle. So, I think you need an opener. Only two winners in the history of the IPL have not been openers in this market."

Manish, what do the stats say?

"Yeah, the stats absolutely support that, and the reason behind that is the opener gets time to settle in, even in a T20 game, which is a luxury that the batters coming below the order don't have. So, you will see 99% of the time it's the opener that's going to be the highest scorer for the team. Here you can see why Jaiswal's stakes are so high. He has had an absolutely marvelous series against England, batting over 700 runs in a Test series, most number of sixes, which is what matters in a T20 game. 

So, he averaged 48 in the last season. That's why his stakes are so high. Gill, du Plessis, Kohli, all averaged over 50 last season. So, Kohli at 10 is always on. He's well-rested, batting as well as ever, highest run scorer in IPL history. Other people, like KL Rahul, average 46, won in 2020, David Warner averages 41, won in 2019, both of them around 400. So, these are good bets, good bets at the top of the order, opening the innings for their respective franchises."

"Yeah, people say Rahul and others may be criticized for scoring too slowly. I don't care about that whatsoever. As long as they win the orange cap. They won't be striking at 140, but that doesn't matter for this kind of bet."

Richard, who do you like, or maybe someone to avoid?

"I do like Gill. I do like Gill, actually. I know he's got the captaincy now, and there's an argument that that is going to add pressure to him. I think he's such an experienced campaigner; I don't think that will concern him. I think he'll consider that a responsibility that he can carry. Jaiswal, I like, but I just think he's too short. 

He certainly has got the impetus at the moment, but I'm not sure that Rajasthan will go beyond the group stage. So that's why I discount them. So those two were my standouts. They're not long, I know, but I think you're always going to be in the game with Gill."

"Always in the game with Gill," right. It's hat-trick time, the first hat trick of the show. We've got a double hat trick because we're doing top bowler as well for the tournament. I want a winner from each of you for the top IPL tournament run-scorer with 1XBet.

John Wright, name and number, please.

"What I'm going to go for a bit of value down the order, I'm going to go for Travis Head at 22 to 1. I think the Sunrisers are going to have a much better season. They've bought well, they've acquired well, with Cummins coming to captain. I think they're the value in the outright market, and I think that Travis Head, opening the batting, will get a lot of runs. 

People will say he hasn't played in the IPL, but he did play for the RCB back in 2017. And who can forget the World Cup last year when he came to the World Cup in India and took it by storm? I like Travis Head at 22 to 1 for a bit of value."

Manish:"I completely agree with John there, and I have a similar player, Rachin Ravindra, at 23. I think it's a good bet, but it's his first season, so we don't know how it goes. So, I wouldn't go that far. I would say I'll stick with KL Rahul at 12. Okay, he got close, he won it in 2020, he was close last season, he actually got injured, so that's why he couldn't carry on, but he looked a million dollars in the recent series, and he's one of those guys who plays slow, gets runs, and then gets going. So, I count on him to get some runs in every match."

"Fantastic. So, we've got Travis Head at 22, Rahul at 12. Richard, who is the top IPL tournament bet, please?"

"Because I said Gill, Gill is the man for me. I think he's going to do it. I know it's tens; I know it's a little bit short, but 'always in the game with Gill.' That's the phrase for today, clearly. 

Yeah, great price, always in the game with Gill, always in the game with cricket-betting.com as well, for all your IPL needs throughout the tournament. But let's move on to the three best bets for top IPL wicket-taker. I've always found this a trickier market, but let's see what the guys think. 

1XBet have stuck Mitchell Starc at Kolkata at 9, Bumrah, back with Mumbai Indians, fit again at 11, Siraj at 13. I can put a big red line through that; it's a stinker of a price. Boult at 17, Pathirana at 17, Rabada at 21. Select prices, perhaps hinting at the bias, I think, is where the market is dominated, with your death bowlers."

"Right, about that. Manish, what type of bowler wins this market? We don't see spinners win it"

"Yes, so there have been three spinners overall, one in every decade of IPL so far. So, again, Ojha in 2010, Tahir in 2019, and Chahal in 2022, a couple of years back. And I think the reason behind this is spinners don't get to bowl those death overs where you get kind of cheap wickets, which seamers get to bowl. And that, I think, is the only reason; otherwise, I think spinners have had as much impact in the IPL as the seamers have so far."

"And I would also like to welcome back Mitchell Starc. His greatest ability is to take the pitch out of the equation. He could be lethal in the night games. So, welcome back, Starc. Stick with Starc, maybe."

John Wright, presumably you'd be keen on a bowler who goes deep in the tournament because this could be won by, you know, 24 wickets beating 23. So, you need as many games as possible, don't you?

"Definitely. You want someone who's going to be fit, play all the games, go deep in the tournament. And I agree, you need to be a death bowler. Usually, a death bowler gets cheap wickets at the end of the innings. 

You know, he could bowl well at the start and be very unlucky in the Powerplay, but he comes on at the death, last two overs, and gets cheap wickets. So, for me, a death bowler is someone you need to be looking at. Yeah, I mean, I think the market's very wide open, and I could see many people winning it. I would tend to go with a seamer. I know the last few years, you know, you've had Chahal, you've had a few spinners that have bowled particularly well, but I definitely would go for a seamer purely because of those death overs."

Richard, death or glory?

"Are you talking philosophically or in terms of the IPL? So, yeah, I think you're asking for my tip directly, or no?

Just give me a view on what you think about the market, and then we'll go to the standout cricket odds bit. I do think it's wide open. I do think it's wide open. It's interesting that the top three last year came from one team, which I found fascinating, and it tends to be, I think, the last player, sorry, Rabada, won it a few years ago, but this tends to be won by Indian subcontinent bowlers or Asian bowlers, in particular. So, I'm not looking a lot wider than that. 

I would say I think this is trickier, and I'm not sure, you know, you guys look at the numbers a bit more than I, however, they are telling us specifically."

"An Asian bowler and someone with experience within the tournament as well."

"Just a word on Bumrah as well. He's going to be well backed. Just bear it in mind that Mumbai may well rest him at some stage if they're going very well, look like they're on course for a top-two finish. Don't be surprised if Bumrah has a bit of a rest at some stage in the tournament. Let's get on to the second hat trick of the show, in reverse order this time. Richard, Manish, and then John Wright, please. Richard, coming straight back to you for your best bet with 1XBet for top IPL tournament bowler, please."

"Bishnoi, Ravi Bishnoi at 17. I quite like the young leggy. I know the stats may not be for him, but I see some momentum in the way that he's progressing in the IPL. So, Bishnoi at 17."

"Bishnoi to do the business for Richard. Manish, where are you going for your top tournament bowler bet?"

"I would have gone with Bumrah, but as you said, he might be rested at some point in the tournament. He will have a decisive impact, but he might not play all the games. So, with that, and I also want to go with an Indian bowler here because those are the ones who get all the games to play. So, I would go with Siraj at 12 for RCB."

"Manish supports RCB, you never know. John Wright, Mitchell Starc for you?"

"He's been another one that could be rested, actually, John. But yeah, I do like Mitchell Starc, very short in the betting. I'm going to go a bit further down. If you look at this guy's stats, he's unbelievable in the IPL. Trent Boult, he's played for a lot of franchises. He's now totally a white-ball, T20 specialist for New Zealand, you know, he'll just play white ball now. 

His record, his record in this is unbelievable. He's played 88 games for 105 IPL wickets. And also, if you look at the last year for Rajasthan Royals, the only place he came back from injury, only played 10 games, still got 13 wickets. If you look at the makeup of Rajasthan's bowling attack, you got Ashwin, you got Chahal, probably Zampa coming in reserve, got three good spinners. He will spearhead that seam attack. So, I think that Trent Boult at 16 to 1 each way is definitely value to win the purple cap and be a top bowler in the tournament."

"Yeah, Boult, perhaps in the best condition that he's ever been for this IPL, given that, as John said, he's not playing so much for New Zealand anymore. There you go, some really big numbers there to play with 1XBet for your top tournament run scorer and your top tournament bowler in the IPL. We're back next time to tell you who wins the tournament with our special hat trick on the IPL outright. 

I've been Ed Hawkins, with Manish, John Wright, and Richard. Quick update on your profit and loss figures: as we're recording, those Ben, who is not with us this week, minus 2.48, and Manish and John, early days, minus 5. Winners coming thick and fast, no doubt, very soon. Check out cricket-betting.com. That has been the double hat trick. We'll see you next time."