ODI World Cup 2023 - Betting Tips for Australia v New Zealand - 27th Match

Australia and New Zealand clash in Dharamsala, a venue which has kept the bowlers keen so far in this World Cup. The Kiwis may well need a surface which helps bridge the gap between them and rivals who have won the last five head-to-heads. New Zealand also have a dreadful record against Australia at a neutral venue, losing 18 of 19.

The tournament gets serious for the Kiwis now. They had a relatively easy start to affairs but they must win two of their final five to guarantee progression. After Australia, they face tough matches against South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

By contrast, Australia’s run-in is easier. Three more wins (England, Afghanistan and then Bangladesh) secure a semi final spot. We expect the team winning the toss to bat first given it’s a day game, hoping the heat sap the bowling team and then scoreboard pressure does the rest.

Glenn Phillips - NZ top runscorer @8.5 Parimatch

Glenn Phillips has landed big odds for top Kiwi bat once this World Cup. But he’s not a rare winner in this market. On two-year data the middle-order hitter has copped 21% of the time. With Parimatch rating him at just over 11%, there’s a huge gap in our favour.

Statistically, Phillips has little to beat. Big market rivals like Devon Conway and Kane Williamson have average records against Australia in the last five years. Conway has a runs per innings mark of 24 in his three outings. Williamson’s study sample is greater at five games, returning 24 runs per innings. 

It is true that Phillips has played only once against Australia - he made 47 - but it is encouraging that cheap wickets could fall ahead of him allowing Phillips enough crease time to get the win. 

Will Young, the opener, has the best win rate on the market in the last two years but we’re unconvinced by him against the best attack. Indeed, if Williamson is fit he could lose his spot.

Steve Smith over 33.5 runs @1.85 Parimatch

Steve Smith is beginning to look in terrific touch in this tournament. He eased to an impressive half-century against the Netherlands last time out and against tougher opposition here, the ball-striking he enjoyed should stand him in good stead.

The runs quote looks cheap considering in the last five years Smith returns an average runs per innings (RPI) mark of 37.2 against New Zealand. He has the same RPI in India in ODI and betting overs at this mark in the last three years on that filter would have returned profits 50% of the time.

Obviously we’d like that return to be a bit higher but we’re hoping the Dutch innings is a big boost. We also note the 2.4 available with Parimatch for Smith to score a 50. 
 

Tom Latham under 21.5 runs @1.85 Parimatch

In New Zealand’s excellent start, Tom Latham has taken something of backseat with the bat. While Daryll Micthell, Rachin Ravdindra and Devon Conway have scored centuries his returns have been more modest with two fifties. He’s may feel under pressure in this game to produce just as the temperature is turned up on his team’s campaign.

He couldn’t have picked a worse opponent to make a statement innings. Latham has a horrible record against Australia. In ten innings he has a highest score of just 43 and his runs per innings mark is a lowly 14.3. His individual averages against the likes of Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood are also low, seven and 14.6 respectively.

Shorting his runs in the last ten matches at the above quote would have resulted in a winning voucher seven times.